Are Electric Vehicles like the Emporers New Clothes?

I’m not sure why, but I feel a bit like the small child in the parable of the Emperors new clothes, where the child in question is the only individual brave enough to inform the Emperor that he is walking around naked, not clothed in a wonderful new garment

No, I’m not seeing naked emperors, but perhaps their automotive equivalent, the much promoted Electric Vehicle (EV).

I’m not going to go on a positive or negative rant about EV’s, but  just make a few observations about when and how they will likely make a significant contribution to the central issue.  And perhaps ponder on whether there isn’t a need to modify our expectations and do more in the here and now.

We’re told we need EV’s as a solution for The Cars’ contribution to climate change and global warming, though oddly there seems to be more of a focus in the UK on reviving our manufacturing industry with new EV technology.

So what am I seeing that concerns me so? In the first instance it is all about certainty.  The scientific community is quite “certain” that climate change is taking place and equally “certain” that this is linked to man-made CO2 emissions, to which transport, and passenger cars particularly, are a significant contributor.  Doesn’t that mean that what our climate needs now are solutions with an equal amount of “certainty”?

We need real solutions, NOW, that will reduce our impact on the climate

The New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT) produced a handy report for the government last year which outlined a technology road-map out to 2040 and beyond.  It shows the increasing roles that various types of emerging automobile technologies such as hybrids, electric vehicles and fuel cell cars will have over the next 30 years.  The main observation I’d make from this report is that accompanying the inception of Full Hybrids, Electric Vehicles and Fuel Cell cars is a word that we know is right to be there, but perhaps do not acknowledge as much as we should. The word? “Breakthrough”.  For me, a future “breakthrough” is not the same as “certainty”.  It is presented as though it will definitely happen (and it may) but its not “certain” to happen.

Another high profile UK Government advisory body, the Technology Steering Board, also produced a report  last year.  This projected another view of the future as they see it.  Their report states that over the next 10 years, 90% of transport carbon reductions will come, not from hybrids, electric cars or fuel cell vehicles, but from improvements in conventional technologies.  They even put a number to it; they say that they expect future global sales of electric vehicles to reach between 1-3 million by 2020.  This is against a backdrop of circa 50m ish total annual sales.  So even if 3m EV’s sold globally in 2020 were a “certainty”, which it isn’t (and I’ve used the bigger number deliberately), their contribution to carbon reduction is not that great (even if all the electricity they used was renewable, which it won’t be!).

So where does that leave us.

Climate Change is a “certainty”, that it’s man made is also a “certainty”.

It is uncertain that we will achieve the necessary “breakthroughs” to make viable electric vehicles which will make a difference over the next ten years.  Should we stop trying?  Of course not.  Should we develop our charging infrastructure?  Yes, of course.  Should we also promote and encourage the take up of TODAY’s low CO2 cars?  Yes, we should.

Do we have technologies TODAY that WILL make a difference, Yes we do.

Do we have measures in place to help people buy today’s cars that are low CO2?  Well, we have some weak ones - a few quid off VED perhaps.  But nothing like the government’s £5k grant when you purchase an electric vehicle.

Whilst the UK government is happy to throw money at punters to purchase a new Tesla Roadster, (which is unlikely to be used everyday as its as impractical as any sports car), someone buying a new frugal, small,  diesel powered car and using it for their daily commute gets no such incentive.  Where is the logic in that?

A final thought, The cars put on the road today will still be there (in the majority of cases by 2020 and beyond).  By not focusing the public’s mind and helping them purchase today’s green cars, the government is continuing to contribute adversely to transport’s climate impact for some time to come.

Peter, Environmental Transport Consultant, for We Are Futureproof

Why we should support electric cars

The UK budget is coming around again next week, and as a preview the government announced plans this week to subsidise motorists up to £5000 to encourage them to buy electric or plug-in hybrid cars. We support the move as it sets a long term market shift for the industry which is sorely needed.

“There is a near-global consensus that something has to replace internal combustion engines, which account for 20% of the world’s carbon emissions, and it needs to happen fast. A perfect storm of technology, design and political will suggests 2009 will be the year the electric car begins its takeover in earnest.” (Guardian, 16 April 2009)

To set the context, the car companies are in a real pickle. Through years of poor strategic planning as well as the global economic decline, many find themselves struggling to stay alive.  On top of that there is a limited reserve of oil and so they simply have to change from the internal combustion engine design. Then there is climate change - the UK government has to reduce CO2 emissions quite dramatically (about 22% of the UK’s carbon emissions come from transport, with 13% of these from private cars). And on top of that the UK has to meet air quality standards for PM10 and NOx (currently the government is in breach of EU limits). The only solution available so far to address all three is to create a giant shift in the design and promotion of cars to electric vehicles.

And judging on how long it takes car makers to alter course, we need to start that change now. Luckily there are several models being put into production already - The Tesla Roadster & the Chevy Volt being two examples.

“Having a lot of batteries plugged into the grid would help the grid with ‘balancing’ the intermittancy of having lots more renewables plugged into it. We have far more wind, tide and wave potential in the UK than we need, but not at the right time, so finding storage is an issue, and having cars plugged in, to be charged when we have spare juice and serve as a buffer when we are short could potentially be a major benefit.” (Sian Berry, Sky news debate, April 2009)

While there are many criticisms of electric cars, including hydrogen and battery technology, incentives like the one proposed by the government are helping to promote innovation in the technologies. In the field of batteries alone there is a spectrum of new solutions, from battery ’service stations’ (Project Better Place) to break throughs in design (new bateries that charge in seconds, not hours).

Blake, for We Are Futureproof

London’s black cabs may go electric

According to our friends at ETA, the iconic London black cab may soon go electric.

Chinese car maker Geely, which owns a large stake of taxi-manufacturer LTI vehicles, is currently developing its own plug-in hybrid and electric cars and is examining the feasibility of converting the diesel-engined cabs to run on battery power.

Apparently, a London TX4 taxi emits a whopping 226g CO2 per km, which is more than twice the amount produced by today’s most efficient diesel cars. As there are 20,000 black cabs in London, that makes a strong case for converting to electric power.